Impacts and economic costs of climate change on Mexican agriculture

Abstract This study quantifies the impacts of climate change on yields and corresponding economic losses in six relevant crops that account for 65% harvested area Mexico are highly terms consumption value. The results show crop could decrease considerably during this century, especially rainfed management system. Under a high-emission scenario, large reductions expected by end century both irrigated systems maize (42%, 31.4%), rice (51.4%, 41.3%), sorghum (41.1%, 36.6%), soybean (59.1%, 44.9%), wheat (23.3%, 20.0%), sugarcane (11.7%). At national level, present value selected amounts to $37,934 million dollars, which represents about twice current total agricultural production Mexico. Rainfed agriculture 69% these almost 70% losses. States such as Veracruz, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, Jalisco represent half However, 16% aggregated occur states with high levels poverty subsistence farming like Chiapas, Oaxaca, Guerrero. Climate will significantly increase risks already vulnerable farmers’ face present. Although ambitious mitigation efforts can reduce estimated most crops, residual damages considerable, prompt implementation adaptation strategies is required.